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MONTGOMERY, Ala. (WAKA) – Action 8 Political Analyst Steve Flowers explains what happens next as the state awaits a possible decision from the U.S. Supreme Court over whether Congressional district lines can be changed before this year’s November election.
Flowers told Action 8’s Glenn Halbrooks that he would expect a decision by the middle of summer. While the Legislature has approved bills that Gov. Kay Ivey has signed to move the district lines, currently Alabama is barred by the courts from making changes before the 2030 Census. The state has asked the U.S. Supreme Court for permission to make the changes now.
If that happens, a special election will be held in Congressional districts 1, 2, 6 and 7 as well as State Senate districts 25 and 26, which cover Montgomery County. These races would start over, with new candidates able to qualify for them. The results from the May 19 primaries would be thrown out. The primaries would have to be held early enough in order for the races to stay on schedule for the November 3 general election.
Flowers says if the Supreme Court says no to Alabama’s request or simply doesn’t respond, state Republican efforts would be moot and the current district maps and results will stand.
The reason this is happening is because of a U.S. Supreme Court decision involving a Congressional district in Louisiana. The court struck down the district, saying race was too big of a factor in how it was drawn up. That decision has implications on other majority-minority Congressional districts and to the Voting Rights Act of 1965.
Alabama Republicans have used that as a basis to change the state’s maps. Previous maps that the Legislature had drawn up after the 2020 Census were thrown out by the courts, which said the state must create a district to give Black Alabama voters a greater chance at electing a Black candidate. The courts themselves changed the maps, which allowed Black Democrat Shomari Figures to win the 2nd Congressional District seat in 2024.
If the state is allowed to return to the maps passed by the Legislature, Figures would be vulnerable in his bid for re-election, because the district would once again favor a Republican.
Alabama Democrats, Black voters and civil rights groups have expressed outrage that the Legislature wants to change the districts. Flowers says that those groups may still be motivated by the time the November general election arrives, which could lead to larger Democratic voter turnout. He questions whether that turnout would be enough to elect Democratic candidates in state races.
Watch the video above to hear more from Steve Flowers.
