Sever Hezbollah’s maritime connection
Prioritizing the severing of the north-south link by striking the bridges over the Litani River, the occupying army is simultaneously attempting to completely sever Hezbollah’s maritime connection, which has been severely restricted since 7 October 2023, through a gradual advance towards the city of Tyre along the coastal strip. Furthermore, by pursuing a second land-based advance strategy along the occupied Golan Heights, the Zionist administration is making a move to create an area in which to squeeze Hezbollah and other resistance groups, large and small.
In particular, the occupying army aims to effectively strike the positions of Hezbollah or other groups from the ground using the artillery batteries it has redeployed to Lebanese territory via Mount Hermon in the Syrian territories it has held under control since the occupation; in this way, it plans to completely eliminate any form of resistance that could pose a threat to its presence in southern Lebanon.
Alongside its strategy to annex the south, the occupying state’s current demographic engineering is a step designed to destabilize Lebanon’s political and social fabric further and enable it to establish control over the entire country in the event of a potential civil war. There is a risk that the approximately 1.5 million displaced Lebanese will become a serious problem within the country in the coming period. The situation will fundamentally affect the country’s internal dynamics when one million Shia Lebanese—who have been forcibly removed from their homes and villages by the occupying army—are resettled in Sunni, Christian, or Druze areas.
The deepening of the social crisis in economically bankrupt Lebanon will open the door to a new period of instability across the entire Middle East. Should such an event occur, it would serve Tel Aviv’s aggressive expansionist strategy, thereby creating a new reality in which Israel establishes a vast sphere of influence over Lebanon, starting from north of the Litani River.
The deep anxiety caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the disruption of the production and transfer of petrochemical products will further accelerate multi-dimensional and multi-layered initiatives in the coming days to end the war against Iran and find a formula for a sustainable and realistic ceasefire. However, at a time when everyone is striving to propose solutions for the Gulf due to the greater risks involved, the status quo in Lebanon—set to be altered by the occupying state—will open the door to a process that may have far more destructive effects in the Middle East, particularly in the Levant region, than those in the Gulf.
For this reason, regional and global actors must focus not only on developments in the Gulf but also on those in Lebanon and take serious action not merely to secure a ceasefire but also to curb the Zionist regime. Otherwise, a phase will likely follow in which the aggressiveness of the occupying state is felt with considerable severity in Palestine and Syria after Lebanon.
