WASHINGTON (TNND) — Escalating fighting with Iran after President Donald Trump said the ceasefire was over is renewing risks for Republicans heading into the midterms with an unpopular conflict that could send gas prices higher again.
The fragile ceasefire has come under increasing strain as the United States and Iran exchanged new attacks in recent days after Trump declared the truce was over. While the fighting has not returned to the scale seen before the ceasefire, it has renewed concerns that the conflict could escalate further and send gas prices climbing again.
Even as Trump has agreed to continue talks with Iran, he has maintained that the ceasefire is over, leaving the future of negotiations and the conflict uncertain.
“The Islamic Republic of Iran has asked us to continue ‘talks.’ We have agreed to do so, but the United States has stated to them, in no uncertain terms, that the Cease Fire is OVER!” he wrote in a Truth Social post on Friday.
The developments are renewing fears another round of fighting could erase weeks of progress on energy prices, reviving one of Republicans’ biggest political liabilities heading into the election. Oil prices had nearly returned to pre-war levels before the fighting escalated again.
A return to fighting is posing risks for Republicans that could cost them significantly come November, especially prices at the pump head back above $4 a gallon like they did during the peak of the conflict. The average cost for a gallon of gasoline was $3.88 as of Friday, according to AAA. A year ago, the cost was $3.17.
Gas prices are one of the most politically sensitive economic indicators because they are among the most visible costs consumers face in an election that is centered around affordability. The resulting rise in prices in response to the war are also providing voters with clear target to blame.
“The American people are likely to blame Republicans for the higher prices that they’re paying, and that could bode very poorly for Republican politicians, even people who don’t hold office and had nothing to do with the war,” said Chris Devine, an associate professor of political science at the University of Dayton. “There’s really a simple narrative — simpler than usual — for explaining why gas prices are higher. They shot up as soon as the war in Iran started.”
Trump and other administration officials have argued the costs of the war are worth the temporary rise in energy prices to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, a position many voters have disagreed with in public opinion surveys.
The war has been widely unpopular throughout, with large swaths of Americans opposed to the conflict, questioning whether it was necessary and doubting the cost of higher gas prices and economic uncertainty are worthwhile to prevent Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon.
Sixty percent of registered voters said the Iran conflict was not worth it in a Quinnipiac University survey released in June, which also found nearly 6-in-10 were skeptical the preliminary deal would work. Only 34% of voters in the survey approved of Trump’s handling of the conflict.
Trump campaigned aggressively on bringing down the cost of living after inflation hit multidecade highs during the Biden administration. He also promised to keep the U.S. out of foreign wars, a promise some Americans feel was broken with the operation in Iran. That message helped Republicans position themselves as the party focused on lowering costs, making another inflation spike a difficult political challenge.
Congressional Republicans have largely stood behind Trump’s handling of the conflict and only a handful have backed Democratic-led resolutions to limit the president’s authority to carry out the war. That has left them in a challenging position to campaign as they face voters who are growing more upset about affordability and want the war to come to a permanent end.
“I don’t think it helps Republicans how bluntly Trump talks about the situation and how easily he gives a headline to say that we’re back to square one,” Devine said. “If you’re Republicans, how do you even message about this? How do you talk about it? What do you say the goals are? As we’ve seen over the life of this conflict, they could easily change over time.”
Democrats were quick to seize on Trump’s comments about the end of the ceasefire to criticize Trump and Republicans for failing to address Americans’ struggles with the cost of living. The party is certain to continue tying increases in prices directly to the war as they try to undermine Republicans’ economic message heading into November.
“This is what happens when an incompetent president launches a war with no objective, no plan, and no exit strategy – you lose,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a statement. “The American people are paying the price for Trump’s total failure in Iran. Our troops are back in harm’s way and high gas costs are continuing to punish working families.
