Horror show. Disgusting. Foul. Nasty. Vile.
Use any word or words in that manner and you are spot on when describing my picks last week.
I did go 8-5 straight up, which is OK. But I was 3-9-1 against the spread, and at one point Sunday, I was staring a Ryan Wilson in the face. What’s a Ryan Wilson? Going 0-fer with your spread picks.
I did rally to win three games, but it wasn’t pretty. That drops my season ATS record to 91-94-8, which means under .500 again. The straight-up record is 116-77.
It’s time to get back over .500 with the ATS picks, which means a big week for me. I am due after last week’s disaster.
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime Video)
The Patriots can’t score, which is not a good thing against a Steelers defense that will be angry coming off a disappointing loss to the Cardinals. The Steelers will have Mitch Trubisky at quarterback, and he’s better than Bailey Zappe and gang or whoever Bill Belichick plays at quarterback. Look for the Steelers to win it.
Pick: Steelers 23, Patriots 6 (Result: Patriots 21, Steelers 18)
The Steelers-Patriots betting total is set at 30 points, which is one of the lowest in NFL history. I have this game BARELY going under, but what does the SportsLine Projection Model think? Take a look, here.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This is a big division game. Yes, you read that right. The Falcons lead the division, but the Bucs stayed more than alive by beating Carolina last week. This has the look of a lower-scoring game, with the Bucs pulling off an upset on the road.
Pick: Bucs 20, Falcons 17
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
This is a long trip for the Rams against a team coming off a bye. The Rams are one of the surprise teams so far, but this is a real challenge for their defense. Lamar Jackson and the offense will get the best of that unit, while the Ravens defense plays well against Matthew Stafford.
Pick: Ravens 28, Rams 16
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The weather could be an issue here, which isn’t a good thing for the Lions. They are also on the road for a second straight week, while the Bears are coming off a bye. The Chicago defense has improved a lot lately and that will carry over. It’s tight, with the Lions winning it late.
Pick: Lions 21, Bears 20
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This is sort of a big game now after the Bengals beat the Jaguars. The Colts are on the road for a second straight week, which is a challenge, even if it’s a short trip. Jake Browning won’t play like he did against Jacksonville, but he will do enough to win this one.
Pick: Bengals 27, Colts 23
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Jaguars will likely start C.J. Beathard for the injured Trevor Lawrence, while Joe Flacco could start again for the Browns. The Cleveland defense is the better of the two, which will really challenge the Jacksonville offense. This will be a low-scoring game, but Cleveland will win it late.
Pick: Browns 20, Jaguars 14
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Panthers are playing a second straight road game, but they get a Saints team that could be without Derek Carr. That would mean Jameis Winston in as the starter. The Saints defense should be able to slow a Carolina offense that isn’t very good. Saints take it.
Pick: Saints 26, Panthers 14
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This is one of those be-careful games for the young Texans. The Jets offensive issues are evident, but the defense is still more than capable of limiting the Texans offense, especially without Tank Dell. Look for a lower-scoring game with the Texans winning a close one.
Pick: Texans 21, Jets 19
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
These two are coming off their byes, which means they are rested. The Vikings have to decide on a quarterback, which hasn’t been determined yet. The Raiders are 2-2 under Antonio Pierce, and they are playing much better football with him as the interim coach. I think that carries over here.
Pick: Raiders 24, Vikings 20
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Seahawks have lost three straight games and have major issues on defense right now. The 49ers are rolling on offense. That means this will be a mismatch. The 49ers blew them out in Seattle, and they will do it again in this one. I do think both teams will score as Brock Purdy continues his MVP push.
Pick: 49ers 35, Seahawks 23
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Bills come off the bye, while the Chiefs come off a tough loss to the Packers on the road. The Bills need this in the worst way for their playoff hopes, while the Chiefs need it for seeding. This will be a high-scoring game, which will be won by the Chiefs late. It will be a classic.
Pick: Chiefs 34, Bills 33
If you want a more analytical approach to your NFL picks, then I highly suggest that you check out the SportsLine Projection Model, which has been on fire this year. Check it out if you want to know which side to bet for every game in Week 14.
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Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Broncos are in the middle of a three-game road swing, which is never easy. The Chargers won last week against the Patriots, but they scored six points. Six points? I think that changes here, as Justin Herbert plays much better. The Chargers win a game they have to have.
Pick: Chargers 27, Broncos 21
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)
This is the game of the week. The Eagles have big defensive issues, which you don’t want going against this high-flying Dallas offense. The Cowboys didn’t look good on defense against Seattle, either. The Eagles won the earlier meeting, but this time the Cowboys get revenge in a high-scoring game.
Pick: Cowboys 34, Eagles 30
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, fubo)
The Dolphins get a Tennessee team that has yet to win on the road, while the Dolphins have yet to lose at home. Miami rolls up big offensive numbers at home against a Tennessee defense that is struggling. Look for a blowout here.
Pick: Dolphins 38, Titans 16
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC, fubo)
The Packers have won three straight and appear to be rolling. The Giants are coming off a bye. This won’t be an easy game for the Packers coming off a big victory over the Chiefs, but they will find a way to keep the winning streak going. Jordan Love stays hot.
Pick: Packers 23, Giants 17
