Recently I was having a back and forth about politics with a Republican Party official from Eastern Washington, when he dropped one of his big fears for the upcoming year.
If Trump is ahead, he said, “the next step of the unhinged Dems will be to declare martial law and try to stop the 2024 elections.”
He went on: “Why wouldn’t Obama pull the puppet strings on the Biden administration to [cancel the election]? They do not care who, or what, has to die to stay in power.”
He closed: “Think about it … where am I wrong?”
I had the urge to type back “what the ?” as I often do when talking politics these days. Instead, I said: “We have a very different understanding of the facts … the Democrats are not the ones threatening martial law … that was Trump and his people …”
He responded: “Clearly you have been drinking a lot of the Kool aid.”
I bring this up not to highlight how weird my job is. After all, many of you doubtless will find yourselves debating martial law or similarly bonkers topics as you gather around Thanksgiving tables. It’s part of America’s holiday tradition.
I’m recounting it because of a new survey of Washingtonians, called the “2024 National Election Preview.” It was released this past week, by Crosscut and Seattle pollster Stuart Elway, who says he was seeking to explore attitudes of state residents about what’s coming at us next year.
It shows us freaked out — and as polarized as he can recall in four decades of local polling.
For example, he asked which of the leading candidates for president, Joe Biden or Donald Trump, is “a danger to democracy.”
Not too surprisingly, given Trump’s history of trying to overturn the 2020 election, 79% of Democratic voters said that yes, Trump is a danger to democracy.
But then a slightly higher percentage, 80% of Washington state Republicans, also answered with the same accusation about Biden.
“It’s an exact mirror image,” Elway said.
Both groups of voters think that “the election of the other guy is going to destroy the country,” Elway said. “That sums up where we are right now. Whatever the worst you may think about them, they think that about you. How do you compromise or govern in an atmosphere like that?”
Washington voters also split into polar opposite camps on which candidate is corrupt — 77% of D’s say Trump is corrupt, while 74% of R’s say it’s Biden who’s the crooked one. They also split equally over who is good for the economy, or is a strong leader.
Some of this tribal sorting may be due to what pollsters call “expressive responding.” That’s when you tell a pollster you believe something that you don’t really believe. The motivation is to show support for your side, or hostility for the other side.
Do Republicans really think Joe Biden is a strongman-type who would mobilize the military to stay in power?
“Are they really telling us an answer, or are they just spouting a bullet point from their side?” Elway said.
So it was notable that there was one question, and only one, where some voters departed from the groupthink. Unfortunately for Democrats, it was on the question of whether either candidate is “too old to be President.”
Almost all GOP voters said that Biden is too old — that’s low-hanging fruit for them. But what’s surprising is that Democrats did not “expressively respond” much to this one question. About half of all Democrats and Democrat-leaning voters agreed either that Biden is too old, or that both candidates are. (Biden turns 81 on Monday, Trump turns 78 next June.)
“It seemed like it was a more truthful answer from Democrats,” Elway said.
An earlier Associated Press national poll also found that concern about Biden’s age is “oddly” bipartisan: “Americans actually agree on something in this time of raw discord,” was how they put it.
Elway did find that 12% of all voters identified Trump as the one who’s too old. But this compares to 37% who said Biden is too old, and 33% who answered that both are. That puts Biden in 70% of the answers. Bottom line: Far more Democrats answered with a critique of their own candidate.
Nothing in the poll suggests Biden would have difficulty winning Washington state, Elway said. It showed him leading by 10 points, while another poll, released Friday by the Northwest Progressive Institute in Redmond, has Biden up by 14.
“This is a blue state, and even blue voters are saying they’re feeling uncomfortable” about Biden’s age, Elway said. “I think what it means for next year is that every time Biden is on camera, or on the stage, every Democrat in the country is going to be holding their breath.”
Man these are fraught times. Elway said when he asked you the people to sum up your feelings about the upcoming election, one of your top responses was, frankly, “shit show.”
This time of year is also the wish-casting period in the political cycle, though. It’s a time for fantasizing about fresh candidates rising, or bipartisan tickets forming — possibilities that mostly won’t, or can’t, happen. By next fall, Elway predicted, “Democrats probably aren’t going to be reflecting on Biden’s age anymore. They’re going to be pegging at 11 about Trump.”
So true. Since this is the time for wishes, here is mine: I wish for the sanity of our politics that Republicans were as introspective about their candidate’s obvious flaws as Democrats apparently are about theirs.
Maybe someday? It would make this all less of a … what you called it.
