Bajaj Finance share price up 12% this year so far; should you buy or avoid this stock? Here’s what experts say


Bajaj Finance share price declined over a per cent in intraday trade on Thursday. The stock opened at 7,383.65 against the previous close of 7,383.65 and fell 1.07 per cent to the intraday low of 7,304.80 on BSE.

Bajaj Finance’s share price has gained 12 per cent this year so far (as of September 6 close). Equity benchmark Sensex, on the other hand, has gained about 8 per cent in the same period.

The stock hit its 52-week high of 7,999.90 on BSE on July 5 this year. As of the previous session’s close, the stock is down nearly 8 per cent from its one-year peak level.

Should you buy the stock?

Experts are largely positive about the stock for the long term. They point out that the fundamentals of the stock are strong and the company has made significant progress in multiple domains across its ‘omnichannel’ strategy.

According to the company, the omnichannel strategy enables customers to move between online and offline and vice-versa in a frictionless manner. The omnichannel strategy has six domains: (i) Geographic expansion, (ii) Bajaj Finserv app, (iii) Bajaj Finserv website, (iv) Payments, (v) Productivity apps, and (vi) Customer data platform (CDP).

“Omnichannel strategy will make Bajaj Finance a truly customer-centric digital enterprise,” says Sanjiv Bajaj, Chairman of Bajaj Finance.

Experts and brokerage firms have faith in the company’s ability to ensure higher engagement and retention of customers.

Brokerage firm Motilal Oswal Financial Services sees a 19 per cent upside potential in Bajaj Finance stock. The brokerage firm has a buy call on the stock with a target price of 8,800.

The brokerage firm said payment solution offerings will be core to delivering the ‘omnichannel’ strategy since it can drive higher engagement and retention of customers on Bajaj Finance’s new digital platforms.

Motilal pointed out that Bajaj Finance will further accelerate the execution of its omnichannel strategy in FY24 and gain increased penetration across the country by opening an additional 400-450 locations.

With this transformation, Motilal said, Bajaj Finance targets a substantial rise in business volumes, enriched customer experience, and a leaner cost structure. This should generate greater customer acquisition, higher customer loyalty, more profitable cross-selling, and better margins for each of its businesses.

“Bajaj Finance aims to be an ‘omnipresent’ financial services company, asserting dominance across all consumer touchpoints, covering physical, app-based, web, social and virtual channels. It has made significant progress in optimising its processes and making them digital-ready and has made significant structural changes to its technology stack to this effect,” Motilal Oswal Financial Services observed.

“The approach of ‘acquire and cross-sell’ (across payments, loans, deposits, insurance and investments which derives from Bajaj Finance’s experience of an existing customer exhibiting significantly lower credit risk) would be a key growth driver in FY24 as well,” said Motilal Oswal.

“We model an AUM (assets under management) CAGR of nearly 29 per cent over FY23-FY25E for a sustainable RoE (return on equity) of 25 per cent. Bajaj Finance’s return ratios have not only been consistent but are also the highest in our coverage universe (after that of gold financiers),” the brokerage firm said.

Bajaj Finance appears to be an attractive long-term buy because of its healthy fundamental factor. However, technical analysts observe some key resistance levels for the stock for the short term. The stock can move higher once it takes out and sustains above these resistance levels.

Gaurav Bissa, VP of InCred Equities pointed out that Bajaj Finance has witnessed a smart recovery after correcting from 8,000 level. However, the structure remains rangebound.

“While the stock can witness a move towards 7,500-7,550 in the coming days, major hurdles are placed at 8,000 level which has been acting as a solid resistance since 2021. On an immediate basis, hurdles are seen at 7,700 level,” said Bissa.

“The risk-reward at the current juncture does not garner a fresh buy, however, investors who have already bought can hold for the level of 8,000. A close above this level will result in a fresh breakout which can push it to 8,800 level,” Bissa said.

Jigar S. Patel, Senior Manager of Equity Research at Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers underscored that Bajaj Finance faces stiff resistance near the Ichimoku cloud along with the upper Bollinger band at the current juncture. Even on the indicator front, the daily direction movement index looks exhausted along with the daily RSI getting rejected from 60 levels.

“As we advance, resistance could be seen near 7,500 and support is seen around 7,200,” said Patel.

Bajaj Finance technical chart.

Bajaj Finance reported a consolidated net profit of 3,437 crore for the first quarter of FY24 (Q1FY24), which was 32 per cent higher than the 2,596.3 crore profit in the corresponding quarter of last year.

The company’s AUM grew by 32 per cent to 270,097 crore as of June 30, 2023, from 204,018 crore as of June 30, 2022. Its Q1FY24 net interest income (NII) increased by 26 per cent to 8,398 crore on a consolidated basis, from 6,640 crore in the same quarter last year.

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Disclaimer: The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts and broking companies, not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.

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