Political analysts say both gubernatorial races are wide open, but the paths to victory look very different in each state.
With no incumbent in either race, Florida and Georgia’s 2026 governor’s races are already taking shape and drawing national attention months before primary voters cast their ballots.
Political analysts say both races are wide open, but the paths to victory look very different in each state. Florida’s is dominated by an early front-runner, while Georgia’s remains deeply divided in a true swing state showdown.
In Florida, the Republican primary is crowded. Still, political analyst A.G. Gancarski, who has decades of experience inquiring into elections, says one candidate has quickly separated himself from the field.
“On the Republican side is Byron Donalds, a congressman from Naples,” Gancarski said. “He’s really well out in front — all the polls say that he’s close to 50%. He’s got more fundraising than everybody else in the race combined. He’s over $30 million last check.”
Gancarski says Donalds’ early advantage is fueled by strong fundraising, high name recognition, and an endorsement from President Donald Trump.
On the Democratic side, candidates are still working to consolidate support. Two of the most recognizable names are Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings and former Congressman David Jolly.
Gancarski expects a familiar pattern in the Democratic primary.
“You’ll probably see a sort of demographic split among Democrats,” he said. “The Black Democrats more going for Demings and the white Democrats perhaps going for Jolly — that kind of split that we’ve seen traditionally, like 2018 when Andrew Gillum ran.
In Georgia, the race remains up in the air without a clear frontrunner.
Gancarski says the Peach State’s status as a swing state, and its more independent-leaning Republican voters, make the outcome far less predictable.
“Georgia’s election is going to be interesting to watch because Georgia Republicans are a little bit different than Florida Republicans,” Gancarski said. “They don’t necessarily walk in lockstep with the president.”
The Republican field includes several high-profile statewide leaders, including Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones, and Attorney General Chris Carr all competing for the nomination.
On the Democratic side, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms has emerged as an early front-runner, though analysts say the race will ultimately depend on primary turnout.
“In Georgia, it’s going to be more of a split thing,” Gancarski said. “You’re going to see who comes out of the primary.”
Even this early in the election cycle, Gancarski says campaign finances can offer valuable insight into who has staying power.
“I always look at fundraising reports because they come out every quarter now,” he said. “If a candidate isn’t really demonstrating momentum in terms of fundraising, they’re not going to get very far in terms of the electorate.”
Registration and election dates to know
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Primary Election: August 18
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Voter Registration Deadline (Primary): July 20
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General Election: November 3
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Voter Registration Deadline (General): October 5
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Primary Election: May 19
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Voter Registration Deadline (Primary): April 20
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General Election: November 3
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Voter Registration Deadline (General): October 5
Declared and major candidates for governor
Florida
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Byron Donalds
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Paul Renner
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James Fishback
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Jay Collins
Georgia
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Brad Raffensperger
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Burt Jones
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Chris Carr
