The Dallas Cowboys have surrendered at least 30 points in more than half their games and just watched Jacoby Brissett score three total touchdowns in a Monday night loss that stood to sink their playoff chances if changes weren’t made. Jerry Jones and Co. decided to make those changes, executing multiple trades for defensive help on Tuesday starting with the addition of linebacker Logan Wilson from the Bengals for a seventh-round pick.
The best was yet to come, however, as the Cowboys sent a 2026 second-round pick, a 2027 first-round pick and Mazi Smith to the Jets for 2022 All-Pro defensive lineman Quinnen Williams. The additions are meant to address a defense that is 29th in yards per play allowed and the only unit in the league to allow more than 50% of third down attempts to result in a new set of downs. Williams joins Kenny Clark as the nucleus of the Cowboys’ defensive line moving forward after the latter was acquired along with two first-round picks in a preseason deal that sent Micah Parsons to the Packers.
DraftKings Sportsbook has the Cowboys listed at +1000 odds to make the playoffs and -2000 odds to miss. In order for the make playoffs side to be a value proposition, the true chances for Dallas would need to be better than 9.1%. Are they?
Short answer: it’s close. The Inside The Lines team, which powers the SportsLine Projection Model at CBS Sports, had the Cowboys as a 6.9-win team prior to the trade with 7.9% chance to make the playoffs. With Williams in place, the Cowboys’ win total projection is boosted by 0.1 wins, which seems marginal but does lead to around 12% growth in their playoff chances to take them to 8.8%. At that projection, the Cowboys would become a value play to make the playoffs once the odds tip to +1037 or higher.
Of course, both trades are also about the future for the Cowboys, with both players acquired under contract through 2027, same as Clark. In aggregate, the Cowboys dealt Parsons and Smith for Williams, Clark and a likely move from the middle of the second round to the late first round, while adding Wilson for virtually no draft pick cost. With the interior of the defensive line set and DeMarvion Overshown on his way back from injury, the priority for Dallas shifts to figuring out the edge rush and boosting the secondary heading into 2026.
