The humanitarian and economic consequences of the climate crisis are especially pronounced in Asia – a region highly vulnerable to climate change and simultaneously grappling with economic pressures, security concerns, and geopolitical tensions. Climate action in many Asian nations remains heavily leadership-driven, making it particularly susceptible to disruption during political transitions. Frequent, and often abrupt, shifts in power can deprioritize environmental policies, stall progress, or even reverse hard-won gains. Conversely, new leadership provides an opportunity to embrace and effectively embed climate policies as an early priority to win public support and establish a long-term vision for growth and development for their countries.
While the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement for a second time following President Donald Trump’s return to the office is one clear example of how leadership transitions impact climate progress, this uncertainty is not limited to the United States. In Asia, the past year alone has seen major political transitions, from Indonesia’s presidential election to South Korea’s leadership shakeup and an interim government taking charge in Bangladesh mid-year. To safeguard climate commitments from political transitions and periods of political instability, it is crucial to anticipate challenges, build long-term policy visions, and leverage transitions as opportunities for stronger action – ensuring progress continues regardless of who is in power.
Political Transitions: Challenges and Underlying Opportunities
In Bangladesh, the ouster of Sheikh Hasina in August 2024 raised concerns within climate advocacy circles that the government’s focus would shift away from climate action to the immediate need to restore law and order and stabilize a fragile economy. With an interim government now implementing reforms ahead of the anticipated elections in late 2025, there is a unique opportunity for the leadership to embed climate resilience more effectively and deeply into national recovery efforts. Youth-led ambition, evident in the growing demands for sustainable development and a future-oriented vision, also positions Bangladesh to rethink its policies from the lens of its extreme climate vulnerability. Chief Advisor Dr. Muhammad Yunus, known for his advocacy on sustainable development and his Three Zero vision, has the potential to drive climate-aligned reforms that could offer greater long-term stability and a steady development trajectory for the country.
In Pakistan, persistent political instability has long been one of the biggest barriers to sustained climate action. With governments frequently failing to complete their full term, policy continuity remains a challenge – particularly in areas requiring long-term investment, such as climate resilience. The devastating 2022 floods were a stark reminder that Pakistan is on the frontlines of climate change, yet governance challenges and economic crises continue to threaten progress.
The new leadership, ushered in by last year’s elections, has shown the intent to address these issues, introducing Pakistan’s first National Climate Finance Strategy (NCFS) at COP29 – an initiative aligned with the broader Climate Resilience Vision 2050. Additionally, the government also notably launched URAAN Pakistan under the 5Es National Economic Transformation Plan, with a focus on resilient cities, climate-impact technologies, and sustainable innovation. While these initiatives signal ambition, their success will depend on successful implementation, backed by strong governance and continued political commitment.
Political and leadership transitions also offer a chance to introduce fresh mandates and invigorate stalled progress. In Indonesia, President Prabowo Subianto has recently announced more ambitious goals for the country, including phasing out coal-fired power by 2040, developing over 75 gigawatts of clean energy by the same deadline, and achieving net-zero emissions before 2050. While these targets are commendable, challenges around implementation, regulatory hurdles, and funding gaps need to be addressed. At the same time, his leadership also aims to provide a platform to build on Indonesia’s G-20 presidency legacy by fostering stronger region-wide collaboration on climate and energy projects. However, to translate these ambitions into tangible progress, Prabowo’s administration will need to secure financing for the energy transition and ensure that short-term economic interests do not undermine long-term climate commitments.
Taiwan’s election in 2024 brought President Lai Ching-te into office. Since his inauguration, Lai has launched the “Energy Transition 2.0” initiative, which aims to accelerate solar and offshore wind projects while integrating advanced technologies like battery storage and smart grids. Additionally, he also announced the establishment of the National Climate Change Response Committee last summer to ensure a more coordinated, centralized approach to meeting Taiwan’s net-zero target by 2050.
At the same time, the implementation of Taiwan’s carbon fee system at the beginning of this year marks a crucial step toward incentivizing emissions reduction. The system initially applies to the largest emitters, with expectations that it will expand over time to include more sectors and increase in price to drive stronger decarbonization efforts. Further strengthening Taiwan’s climate policy, the government has also decided to bring forward the launch of its Emissions Trading System (ETS) as early as 2026, which will provide a more market-driven mechanism to cap emissions and incentivize reductions across industries.
However, despite these advancements, Taiwan’s current rollout of renewable energy has been slow, with renewables accounting for just 9.9 percent of the electricity generation mix in 2023, well below the 20 percent target set for 2025. With ambitious policies now in motion, the key question will be whether Taiwan can accelerate its renewable deployment fast enough to meet its climate targets while maintaining energy security.
There are also rising opportunities to realign policies and strengthen international cooperation in some Asian countries. For example, in South Korea, where the impeachment of President Yoon Suk-yeol late last year has created an environment wrought with political uncertainty, there is also now potential for a transformative shift in climate policy under new leadership. The opposition Democratic Party (DP), which holds a majority in the National Assembly and is poised to take executive power if Yoon’ impeachment is upheld and a snap election is called, has outlined ambitious climate goals, including increasing renewable energy to 40 percent of the energy mix by 2035 and developing a green energy belt of solar and wind farms. At the same time, South Korea’s ETS – a policy constant and one of the most advanced in Asia – could continue to serve as a key tool in strengthening climate action, particularly if revenues are reinvested into expanding renewables, improving industrial efficiency, and accelerating the transition away from coal.
Way Forward
Navigating political transitions without derailing climate progress requires more than just ambition – it demands structural safeguards, long-term planning, and the ability to turn leadership changes into opportunities for stronger climate action. For new leaderships, an invigorated focus on climate change also brings in the greater support of the young voters in Asia who are increasingly feeling the weight of climate impacts on daily lives and livelihoods.
One of the most effective ways to do this is through legislative mandates, making climate policies legally binding rather than discretionary. For instance, Japan’s amended Act on Promotion of Global Warming Countermeasures, which included the net-zero target by 2050, establishes a legal framework for the country’s climate action that enshrines Japan’s commitment to carbon neutrality into law.
Additionally, broad-based support for climate initiatives increases public pressure on leaders to act and enhances accountability. This can be achieved by establishing dedicated bodies for ongoing stakeholder engagement. For instance, Pakistan’s Standing Committee on Climate Change provides parliamentary oversight and facilitates expert input on climate policies.
It is also important to note that the upcoming Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) cycle will be a key test of whether new administrations in the Asia-Pacific are raising ambition or merely maintaining the status quo. With the initial deadline for NDC submission already passed and few countries having finalized theirs, the process raises expectations for governments to deliver not just incremental updates, but first-rate commitments that genuinely align with global net-zero goals. For instance, while Indonesia recently affirmed its commitment to climate action under the Paris Agreement, it will be important to closely watch how Prabowo’s pledges – such as the fossil fuel phase-out and clean energy expansion – are translated into the country’s next NDC.
There is also an opportunity for new leaders to strengthen alliances and advance cooperation on shared climate goals and commitments that can amplify impact. Prabowo’s recent visit to India as a state guest reflects his interest in making a mark internationally through alliances. Both India and Indonesia, important players in the Global South, expressed shared interest in energy transition and disaster prevention, presenting an opportunity to not only catalyze deeper bilateral cooperation on renewable energy and climate resilience initiatives but also take the fruits of their cooperation to the larger Global South. If leveraged effectively, this type of engagement between key Asian countries could help sustain the climate action momentum, solidifying diplomatic ties, even as domestic and regional political landscapes shift – setting a good example for other countries to follow.
Ultimately, the true measure of progress will not just be in the pledges made or the rhetoric, but in whether governments are able to utilize periods of political transitions to lock in long-term climate policies.
